Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
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YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.
YES
1.1%
NO
99.0%
Wol. 24h
$56128
Dni
915
Referencja
YES 1.1%
Teraz
YES 1.1%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
Ocena tezy
100/100
Edge 100/100, confidence 71/100, risk 26/100
Następny krok
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
pending
Rules match the thesis
Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.
pending
Depth is real
Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.
pending
Catalyst confirmed
Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.
Scenariusz bazowy
Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.
Dyscyplina wejścia
Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.
Estimated net edge is 87.2pp before personal execution costs.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.
Potwierdź przed zwiększeniem
YES is cheaper on Polymarket
Estimated net edge remains +87.2pp after friction.
Gross spread is 91.5pp.
Minimum side volume is $5,048.
Blokery
Expiry mismatch: 25 days.
Integrity flags: fill and settlement sensitive.
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Unieważnienie
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Co obserwować
Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.
Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.
Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.
VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan.