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English index Edge
Insights
20
Localized pages
140
obserwacja
20
Live odds
YES/NO
Języki: English English Català Euskera 粵語 Polski Galego Cymraeg Gaeilge
Obserwacja badawcza Geopolityka YES obserwacja

Czy ruch przez cieśninę Ormuz wróci do normy przed 15 maja?

YES ma wypukły potencjał wzrostowy tylko wtedy, gdy ruch znormalizuje się na tyle szybko, by IMF PortWatch pokazał 7-dniową średnią co najmniej 60 zawinięć przed 15 maja 2026 r.

Referencja
YES 14.5%
Teraz
YES 24.5%
Ruch
+10.0 pp
Tracker badawczy
Obserwacja, nie domyślny zakup
YES
24.5%
NO
75.5%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Geopolitics YES obserwacja

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 62.0% / NO 38.0% with a setup score of 85/100.

Referencja
YES 62.0%
Teraz
YES 62.0%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
62.0%
NO
38.0%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Prediction markets YES obserwacja

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +17.0pp across 47 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 33.5% / NO 66.5% with a setup score of 97/100.

Referencja
YES 33.5%
Teraz
YES 33.5%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
33.5%
NO
66.5%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Economics YES obserwacja

Fed rate hike in 2026?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 54.5% / NO 45.5% with a setup score of 94/100.

Referencja
YES 54.5%
Teraz
YES 54.5%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
54.5%
NO
45.5%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Prediction markets YES obserwacja

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +56.5pp across 47 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 65.5% / NO 34.5% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencja
YES 65.5%
Teraz
YES 65.5%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
65.5%
NO
34.5%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Prediction markets YES obserwacja

LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +22.3pp across 19 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 95.0% / NO 5.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencja
YES 95.0%
Teraz
YES 95.0%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
95.0%
NO
5.0%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Prediction markets YES obserwacja

LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +32.6pp across 36 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 86.9% / NO 13.2% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencja
YES 86.9%
Teraz
YES 86.9%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
86.9%
NO
13.2%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Prediction markets YES obserwacja

LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +40.0pp across 48 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 66.5% / NO 33.5% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencja
YES 66.5%
Teraz
YES 66.5%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
66.5%
NO
33.5%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Prediction markets NO obserwacja

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 37.5% / NO 62.5% with a setup score of 83/100.

Referencja
NO 62.5%
Teraz
NO 62.5%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
37.5%
NO
62.5%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Geopolitics NO obserwacja

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 40.5% / NO 59.5% with a setup score of 87/100.

Referencja
NO 59.5%
Teraz
NO 59.5%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
40.5%
NO
59.5%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Crypto YES obserwacja

Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 57.0% / NO 43.0% with a setup score of 87/100.

Referencja
YES 57.0%
Teraz
YES 57.0%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
57.0%
NO
43.0%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Prediction markets NO obserwacja

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO moved -14.0pp across 31 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 60.5% / NO 39.5% with a setup score of 88/100.

Referencja
NO 39.5%
Teraz
NO 39.5%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
60.5%
NO
39.5%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Politics YES obserwacja

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencja
YES 1.1%
Teraz
YES 1.1%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
YES
1.1%
NO
99.0%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Politics NO obserwacja

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 48.5% / NO 51.5% with a setup score of 93/100.

Referencja
NO 51.5%
Teraz
NO 51.5%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
48.5%
NO
51.5%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Politics YES obserwacja

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 14.8% / NO 85.2% with a setup score of 82/100.

Referencja
YES 14.8%
Teraz
YES 14.8%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
YES
14.8%
NO
85.2%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Politics YES obserwacja

Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +55.8pp across 11 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 96.0% / NO 4.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencja
YES 96.0%
Teraz
YES 96.0%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
96.0%
NO
4.0%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Economics YES obserwacja

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 52.5% / NO 47.5% with a setup score of 95/100.

Referencja
YES 52.5%
Teraz
YES 52.5%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
52.5%
NO
47.5%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Economics NO obserwacja

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 49.5% / NO 50.5% with a setup score of 98/100.

Referencja
NO 50.5%
Teraz
NO 50.5%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
49.5%
NO
50.5%
Czytaj tezę
Research watch Politics YES obserwacja

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencja
YES 1.1%
Teraz
YES 1.1%
Ruch
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
YES
1.1%
NO
99.0%
Czytaj tezę
These are research notes, not individualized financial advice.
Any market can resolve to zero; size positions so a total loss is acceptable.
Rules beat headlines. Always check resolution criteria before sizing.

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