Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Catalyst momentum watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
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YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +55.8pp across 11 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 96.0% / NO 4.0% with a setup score of 100/100.
YES
96.0%
NO
4.0%
Vol. 24h
$534664
Dies
320
Referència
YES 96.0%
Ara
YES 96.0%
Moviment
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
Puntuació de tesi
100/100
Edge 100/100, confidence 71/100, risk 15/100
Proper pas
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
pending
Rules match the thesis
Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.
pending
Depth is real
Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.
pending
Catalyst confirmed
Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.
Cas base
Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.
Disciplina d'entrada
Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.
Confirma abans de dimensionar
YES moved +55.8pp across 11 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.
Bloquejadors
Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Invalidació
Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Punts a vigilar
Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.
Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.
Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.
VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan.