Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
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YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Kalshi. Current market pricing is roughly YES 20.5% / NO 79.5% with a setup score of 78/100.
YES
20.5%
NO
79.5%
24h bol.
$62015
Egunak
229
Erreferentzia
YES 20.5%
Orain
YES 20.5%
Mugimendua
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
Tesiaren puntuazioa
78/100
Edge 78/100, confidence 94/100, risk 26/100
Hurrengo ekintza
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
pending
Rules match the thesis
Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.
pending
Depth is real
Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.
pending
Catalyst confirmed
Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.
Oinarrizko kasua
Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.
Sarrera-diziplina
Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.
Estimated net edge is 3.1pp before personal execution costs.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.
Baieztatu tamaina handitu aurretik
YES is cheaper on Kalshi
Estimated net edge remains +3.1pp after friction.
Gross spread is 7.0pp.
Minimum side volume is $16,972.
Oztopoak
Expiry mismatch: 1098 days.
Integrity flags: fill and settlement sensitive.
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Baliogabetzea
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Zaintzeko puntuak
Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.
Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.
Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.
VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan.