Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
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YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Kalshi. Current market pricing is roughly YES 20.5% / NO 79.5% with a setup score of 78/100.
YES
20.5%
NO
79.5%
24 小時量
$62015
日數
229
參考
YES 20.5%
而家
YES 20.5%
變動
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
論點分數
78/100
Edge 78/100, confidence 94/100, risk 26/100
下一步
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
pending
Rules match the thesis
Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.
pending
Depth is real
Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.
pending
Catalyst confirmed
Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.
基本情境
Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.
入場紀律
Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.
Estimated net edge is 3.1pp before personal execution costs.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.
加倉前確認
YES is cheaper on Kalshi
Estimated net edge remains +3.1pp after friction.
Gross spread is 7.0pp.
Minimum side volume is $16,972.
阻力
Expiry mismatch: 1098 days.
Integrity flags: fill and settlement sensitive.
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
失效條件
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
觀察項目
Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.
Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.
Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.
VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan.