Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
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YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 14.8% / NO 85.2% with a setup score of 82/100.
YES
14.8%
NO
85.2%
Toirt 24h
$59008
Laethanta
913
Tagairt
YES 14.8%
Anois
YES 14.8%
Gluaiseacht
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
Scór thesis
82/100
Edge 82/100, confidence 90/100, risk 26/100
An chéad chéim eile
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
pending
Rules match the thesis
Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.
pending
Depth is real
Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.
pending
Catalyst confirmed
Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.
Bunchás
Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.
Disciplín iontrála
Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.
Estimated net edge is 3.5pp before personal execution costs.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.
Deimhnigh roimh mhéidú
YES is cheaper on Polymarket
Estimated net edge remains +3.5pp after friction.
Gross spread is 6.8pp.
Both sides show usable volume: $56,562+.
Bacanna
Expiry mismatch: 366 days.
Integrity flags: fill and settlement sensitive.
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Neamhbhailíochtú
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Míreanna faire
Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.
Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.
Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.
VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan.