Geallta Polymarket: taighde as Gaeilge

Faireachán taighde Geopholaitíocht YES faireachán

An bhfillfidh trácht Chaolas Hormuz ar an ngnáth roimh 15 Bealtaine?

Níl upside convex ag YES ach má normalóidh an trácht sách tapa chun go dtaispeánfaidh IMF PortWatch meán gluaisteach 7 lá de 60 glao ar a laghad roimh 15 Bealtaine 2026.

Tagairt

YES 14.5%

Anois

YES 19.5%

Gluaiseacht

+5.0 pp

Rianaire taighde

Faireachán, ní ceannach réamhshocraithe

YES

19.5%

NO

80.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Geopolitics YES faireachán

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 62.0% / NO 38.0% with a setup score of 85/100.

Tagairt

YES 62.0%

Anois

YES 62.0%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

62.0%

NO

38.0%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Prediction markets YES faireachán

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +17.0pp across 47 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 33.5% / NO 66.5% with a setup score of 97/100.

Tagairt

YES 33.5%

Anois

YES 33.5%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

33.5%

NO

66.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Economics YES faireachán

Fed rate hike in 2026?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 54.5% / NO 45.5% with a setup score of 94/100.

Tagairt

YES 54.5%

Anois

YES 54.5%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

54.5%

NO

45.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Prediction markets YES faireachán

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +56.5pp across 47 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 65.5% / NO 34.5% with a setup score of 100/100.

Tagairt

YES 65.5%

Anois

YES 65.5%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

65.5%

NO

34.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Prediction markets YES faireachán

LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +22.3pp across 19 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 95.0% / NO 5.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Tagairt

YES 95.0%

Anois

YES 95.0%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

95.0%

NO

5.0%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Prediction markets YES faireachán

LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +32.6pp across 36 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 86.9% / NO 13.2% with a setup score of 100/100.

Tagairt

YES 86.9%

Anois

YES 86.9%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

86.9%

NO

13.2%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Prediction markets YES faireachán

LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +40.0pp across 48 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 66.5% / NO 33.5% with a setup score of 100/100.

Tagairt

YES 66.5%

Anois

YES 66.5%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

66.5%

NO

33.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Prediction markets NO faireachán

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 37.5% / NO 62.5% with a setup score of 83/100.

Tagairt

NO 62.5%

Anois

NO 62.5%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

37.5%

NO

62.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Geopolitics NO faireachán

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 40.5% / NO 59.5% with a setup score of 87/100.

Tagairt

NO 59.5%

Anois

NO 59.5%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

40.5%

NO

59.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Politics YES faireachán

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Kalshi. Current market pricing is roughly YES 20.5% / NO 79.5% with a setup score of 99/100.

Tagairt

YES 20.5%

Anois

YES 20.5%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.

YES

20.5%

NO

79.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Crypto YES faireachán

Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 57.0% / NO 43.0% with a setup score of 87/100.

Tagairt

YES 57.0%

Anois

YES 57.0%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

57.0%

NO

43.0%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Prediction markets NO faireachán

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO moved -14.0pp across 31 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 60.5% / NO 39.5% with a setup score of 88/100.

Tagairt

NO 39.5%

Anois

NO 39.5%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

60.5%

NO

39.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Politics YES faireachán

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Tagairt

YES 1.1%

Anois

YES 1.1%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.

YES

1.1%

NO

99.0%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Politics NO faireachán

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 48.5% / NO 51.5% with a setup score of 93/100.

Tagairt

NO 51.5%

Anois

NO 51.5%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

48.5%

NO

51.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Politics YES faireachán

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 14.8% / NO 85.2% with a setup score of 82/100.

Tagairt

YES 14.8%

Anois

YES 14.8%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.

YES

14.8%

NO

85.2%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Politics YES faireachán

Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +55.8pp across 11 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 96.0% / NO 4.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Tagairt

YES 96.0%

Anois

YES 96.0%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

96.0%

NO

4.0%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Economics YES faireachán

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 50.5% / NO 49.5% with a setup score of 96/100.

Tagairt

YES 50.5%

Anois

YES 50.5%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

50.5%

NO

49.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Economics NO faireachán

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 49.5% / NO 50.5% with a setup score of 98/100.

Tagairt

NO 50.5%

Anois

NO 50.5%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

49.5%

NO

50.5%

Léigh an thesis

Research watch Politics YES faireachán

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Tagairt

YES 1.1%

Anois

YES 1.1%

Gluaiseacht

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.

YES

1.1%

NO

99.0%

Léigh an thesis