US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Overreaction fade watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
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YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO repriced -45.0pp; watch for snapback if catalyst is weak. Current market pricing is roughly YES 13.5% / NO 86.5% with a setup score of 100/100.
YES
13.5%
NO
86.5%
Vol. 24h
$251150
Días
5
Referencia
YES 13.5%
Agora
YES 13.5%
Movemento
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Compare the move against primary sources before taking the other side
Puntuación da tese
100/100
Edge 100/100, confidence 61/100, risk 24/100
Seguinte acción
Compare the move against primary sources before taking the other side
pending
Rules match the thesis
Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.
pending
Depth is real
Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.
pending
Catalyst confirmed
Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.
Caso base
Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.
Disciplina de entrada
Treat this as a overreaction fade watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.
Confirma antes de dimensionar
NO repriced -45.0pp; watch for snapback if catalyst is weak
Fast markets can overreact to headlines before traders read the exact resolution rules.
Bloqueadores
Integrity flags: close to close.
Invalid if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.
Invalidación
Invalid if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.
Puntos a vixiar
Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.
Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.
Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.
VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan.