Apostas Polymarket: investigación en galego

Vixilancia de investigación Xeopolítica YES vixilancia

Volverá o tráfico do estreito de Ormuz á normalidade antes do 15 de maio?

O SI só ten convexidade alcista se o tráfico se normaliza o bastante rápido para que IMF PortWatch publique unha media móbil de 7 días de polo menos 60 chamadas antes do 15 de maio de 2026.

Referencia

YES 14.5%

Agora

YES 19.5%

Movemento

+5.0 pp

Tracker de investigación

Vixilancia, non compra por defecto

YES

19.5%

NO

80.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Geopolitics YES vixilancia

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 62.0% / NO 38.0% with a setup score of 85/100.

Referencia

YES 62.0%

Agora

YES 62.0%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

62.0%

NO

38.0%

Ler a tese

Research watch Prediction markets YES vixilancia

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +17.0pp across 47 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 33.5% / NO 66.5% with a setup score of 97/100.

Referencia

YES 33.5%

Agora

YES 33.5%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

33.5%

NO

66.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Economics YES vixilancia

Fed rate hike in 2026?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 54.5% / NO 45.5% with a setup score of 94/100.

Referencia

YES 54.5%

Agora

YES 54.5%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

54.5%

NO

45.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Prediction markets YES vixilancia

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +56.5pp across 47 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 65.5% / NO 34.5% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencia

YES 65.5%

Agora

YES 65.5%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

65.5%

NO

34.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Prediction markets YES vixilancia

LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +22.3pp across 19 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 95.0% / NO 5.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencia

YES 95.0%

Agora

YES 95.0%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

95.0%

NO

5.0%

Ler a tese

Research watch Prediction markets YES vixilancia

LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +32.6pp across 36 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 86.9% / NO 13.2% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencia

YES 86.9%

Agora

YES 86.9%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

86.9%

NO

13.2%

Ler a tese

Research watch Prediction markets YES vixilancia

LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +40.0pp across 48 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 66.5% / NO 33.5% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencia

YES 66.5%

Agora

YES 66.5%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

66.5%

NO

33.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Prediction markets NO vixilancia

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 37.5% / NO 62.5% with a setup score of 83/100.

Referencia

NO 62.5%

Agora

NO 62.5%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

37.5%

NO

62.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Geopolitics NO vixilancia

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 40.5% / NO 59.5% with a setup score of 87/100.

Referencia

NO 59.5%

Agora

NO 59.5%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

40.5%

NO

59.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Politics YES vixilancia

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Kalshi. Current market pricing is roughly YES 20.5% / NO 79.5% with a setup score of 99/100.

Referencia

YES 20.5%

Agora

YES 20.5%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.

YES

20.5%

NO

79.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Crypto YES vixilancia

Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 57.0% / NO 43.0% with a setup score of 87/100.

Referencia

YES 57.0%

Agora

YES 57.0%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

57.0%

NO

43.0%

Ler a tese

Research watch Prediction markets NO vixilancia

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO moved -14.0pp across 31 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 60.5% / NO 39.5% with a setup score of 88/100.

Referencia

NO 39.5%

Agora

NO 39.5%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

60.5%

NO

39.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Politics YES vixilancia

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencia

YES 1.1%

Agora

YES 1.1%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.

YES

1.1%

NO

99.0%

Ler a tese

Research watch Politics NO vixilancia

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 48.5% / NO 51.5% with a setup score of 93/100.

Referencia

NO 51.5%

Agora

NO 51.5%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

48.5%

NO

51.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Politics YES vixilancia

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 14.8% / NO 85.2% with a setup score of 82/100.

Referencia

YES 14.8%

Agora

YES 14.8%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.

YES

14.8%

NO

85.2%

Ler a tese

Research watch Politics YES vixilancia

Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +55.8pp across 11 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 96.0% / NO 4.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencia

YES 96.0%

Agora

YES 96.0%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

YES

96.0%

NO

4.0%

Ler a tese

Research watch Economics YES vixilancia

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 50.5% / NO 49.5% with a setup score of 96/100.

Referencia

YES 50.5%

Agora

YES 50.5%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

50.5%

NO

49.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Economics NO vixilancia

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 49.5% / NO 50.5% with a setup score of 98/100.

Referencia

NO 50.5%

Agora

NO 50.5%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

YES

49.5%

NO

50.5%

Ler a tese

Research watch Politics YES vixilancia

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Referencia

YES 1.1%

Agora

YES 1.1%

Movemento

+0.0 pp

Edge tracker

Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.

YES

1.1%

NO

99.0%

Ler a tese