Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Catalyst momentum watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
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NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO moved -14.0pp across 31 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 60.5% / NO 39.5% with a setup score of 88/100.
YES
60.5%
NO
39.5%
24h vol
$742675
Days
152
Reference
NO 39.5%
Now
NO 39.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
Thesis score
88/100
Edge 88/100, confidence 71/100, risk 15/100
Next action
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
pending
Rules match the thesis
Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.
pending
Depth is real
Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.
pending
Catalyst confirmed
Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.
Base case
Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.
Entry discipline
Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.
Confirm before sizing
NO moved -14.0pp across 31 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.
Blockers
Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Invalidation
Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Watch items
Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.
Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.
Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.
VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan.