← Pob insight
Research watch Prediction markets NO gwyliad
Ieithoedd: English Català Euskera 粵語 Polski Galego Cymraeg Gaeilge

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Catalyst momentum watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

0 watching 0 browser 0 email

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO moved -14.0pp across 31 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 60.5% / NO 39.5% with a setup score of 88/100.

Embed Research desk
YES
60.5%
NO
39.5%
Cyf. 24h
$742675
Dyddiau
152
Cyfeirnod
NO 39.5%
Nawr
NO 39.5%
Symudiad
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
Dilyn yr insight hwn
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
Sgôr thesis
88/100
Edge 88/100, confidence 71/100, risk 15/100
Cam nesaf

Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift

pending
Rules match the thesis
Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.
pending
Depth is real
Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.
pending
Catalyst confirmed
Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.

Achos sylfaenol

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Disgyblaeth mynediad

Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Cadarnhewch cyn maint

NO moved -14.0pp across 31 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.

Rhwystrau

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.

Annilysu

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.

Pethau i'w gwylio

Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.
Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.
Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.
VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan.
These are research notes, not individualized financial advice.
Any market can resolve to zero; size positions so a total loss is acceptable.
Rules beat headlines. Always check resolution criteria before sizing.

Get the edge — weekly

Top divergences, biggest movers, and survey insights. No spam.